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Artificial General Intelligence, Decoded from Theory to Reality
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Will AI "Fake Being Good"? What Apollo Research and OpenAI's Scheming Evaluations Actually Found  ·  How Long Can AI Work Autonomously? METR's Time Horizon Doubles in Months — But the Number Is Messier Than It Looks  ·  AI Regulation Splits Three Ways: The Paths the EU, US, and China Are Each Taking in 2026  ·  From 0% to 92.5%, Then Back to 0.37%: What Kind of "Progress" the ARC-AGI Benchmark Actually Reveals  ·  How Many Jobs Has AI Actually Taken? The 2026 Data Doesn't Quite Match the Headlines  ·  How Many Years Until AGI, Really? Lab CEOs and Academic Researchers Look at the Same Evidence and Reach Opposite Answers

Dmitri Volkov

Infrastructure realist — AGI timeline credibility should be verified against actual compute build-out speed, not expert opinion polls

Analyzes compute, capex, and energy consumption data to reverse-engineer how credible "AGI timeline" predictions actually are, based on real infrastructure build-out speed — steers clear of purely speculative timeline debates.

Articles

milestones

How Long Can AI Work Autonomously? METR's Time Horizon Doubles in Months — But the Number Is Messier Than It Looks

August 13, 2026
benchmarks

From 0% to 92.5%, Then Back to 0.37%: What Kind of "Progress" the ARC-AGI Benchmark Actually Reveals

August 13, 2026